398
ACUS02 KWNS 281726
SWODY2
SPC AC 281725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OH TO
WESTERN NY AND PARTS OF WEST TX TO SOUTHWEST OK...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A BROAD SWATH
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON TUESDAY. MORE PROBABLE CORRIDORS
OF GREATER THREAT ARE APPARENT OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND IN PARTS OF WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
..SYNOPSIS
A CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE A SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MEXICO SLOWLY MOVES EAST. PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN ON/QC BORDER WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAKER
SURFACE LOW SHOULD REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE TX TRANS-PECOS.
..OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES
FORECAST SCENARIO IS MARRED BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION OF
REMNANT CONVECTION ON TUESDAY MORNING IN THE MIDWEST TO LOWER OH
VALLEY, AND SIGNALS FOR WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST EAST AND STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY ALONG RELATED LARGE-SCALE
OUTFLOW. THIS COULD TEMPER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OVERALL
SEVERE-STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY, AS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BECOMES LIMITED. A DISTINCT OUTLIER IN GUIDANCE, THE 12Z
ARW-NSSL, STILL INDICATES A FAVORABLE SCENARIO FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
WIND AND EMBEDDED HAIL THREAT, CENTERED ON THE LEVEL 3-ENH RISK
AREA. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MORE
CONDITIONAL, BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND GREATER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE LEE OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.
..WEST TX TO THE OZARKS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH VIA
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. WITH PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM OF THE AZ/NM TROUGH, SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. PEAK
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
ACROSS THE COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOWS INCREASES. THE MOST PROBABLE
CORRIDOR FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO
SOUTHWEST OK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO BROAD CLUSTERS/MCSS BY EARLY EVENING WITH
SMALL-SCALE BOWING STRUCTURES POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SEVERE GUSTS AS WELL BEFORE CONVECTION SUBSIDES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED IN THE PERMIAN BASIN/TX
SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE CONVECTIVELY MODULATED FRONT.
..GRAMS.. 04/28/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page