293
ACUS11 KWNS 281926
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281925
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-282130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...WESTERN WI...NORTHERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 281925Z - 282130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING TORNADOES (SOME STRONG),
VERY LARGE HAIL (TO 3 INCH DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING GUSTS (TO 70 MPH)
ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHWEST IA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION, THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN, NORTHERN IA AND WESTERN WI CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S AS FAR NORTH AS THE MINNEAPOLIS METRO AREA, WITH
UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F TO THE NORTH AND EAST. CONTINUED NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID
IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
REGION VWP DATA FROM KMPX/KDMX/KARX ALREADY SHOW IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ENLARGED, CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS AMID THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET IS AIDING IN 0-1 KM
SRH GREATER THAN 250 M2/S2. AS WEAK MLCIN CONTINUES TO ERODE,
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED, WITH AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN
IA. INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MCD FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, POSING AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK.
A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42299364 42419255 42649166 42859095 43209086 44389096
45279158 45589193 45799230 45909268 45879316 45779350
45579402 45119422 44129443 42629478 42519477 42349412
42299364
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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