215
ACUS11 KWNS 282034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282033
OKZ000-TXZ000-282300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 282033Z - 282300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
STEADILY INCREASE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SIGNS OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT HAVE BEEN EVIDENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THIS ASCENT
AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ERODE CAPPING ALONG/NEAR THE
DRYLINE. A HIGH-BASED STORM HAS ALREADY FORMED NORTHEAST OF FORT
STOCKTON IN THE LAST HOUR. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED
WITHIN THE HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS. LARGE TO
POTENTIALLY GIANT HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE WINDS.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA INTO THE TEXAS ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL STEADILY
INCREASE WITH TIME AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE EAST OF THE DRYLINE FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITHIN THIS MORE FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ZONE.
..WENDT/HART.. 04/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 34040023 35719959 36229909 36769846 36809782 36069709
35409708 34339724 33289797 32219946 32199957 31330088
31160179 31200232 31550250 32450181 34040023
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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