378
ACUS11 KWNS 282229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282229
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 282229Z - 290000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. SOME CONSIDERATION IS BEING GIVEN TO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH.
DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A CORRIDOR OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FROM CENTRAL NE
INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST IA. LIGHTNING IS NOW BEING OBSERVED WITH
FRONTAL CONVECTION WEST-NORTH OF ONL, AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES
DOWNSTREAM ALONG A ZONE OF MODEST INSTABILITY. STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL, AND HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH STEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE RATES DO FAVOR
GUSTY WINDS. IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.
..DARROW/GLEASON.. 04/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42919834 43359612 41969584 41709911 42919834
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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