231
ACUS11 KWNS 282311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282311 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-290030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0611 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...
VALID 282311Z - 290030Z
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL POSE MAINLY A RISK OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE
INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS (00-01Z TIME
FRAME).
DISCUSSION...INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN WESTERN NORTH TX, WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED NEAR THE DRYLINE AMID AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS (PER 21Z
SPECIAL NSSL SOUNDING FROM QUANAH, TX). STRONG SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY (3000 J/KG MLCAPE), DRIVEN BY A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, WILL FAVOR CONTINUED
RAPID UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION. AROUND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
ORIENTED OBLIQUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT
DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE INITIAL HODOGRAPH (SAMPLED BY
FDR VWP) DEPICTS WEAK WINDS IN THE 1-2-KM AGL LAYER, DESPITE
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY
FAVOR SOME SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAPIDLY INCREASES, STORMS SHOULD
INTENSIFY INTO DOMINANT RIGHT-MOVERS WITH AN INCREASING SUPERCELL
TORNADO RISK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS EVOLUTION WILL OCCUR
IN THE 00-01Z TIME FRAME. THE STRONG BUOYANCY, DISCRETE/
SEMI-DISCRETE MODE, AND INCREASING STREAMWISE VORTICITY (AROUND 400
M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH), WILL SUPPORT A STRONG/INTENSE TORNADO THREAT.
..WEINMAN.. 04/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 34099985 34499972 34979935 35139892 35119860 34949830
34619826 33899867 33669906 33649952 33809982 34099985
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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