921
ACUS11 KWNS 290014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290013
TXZ000-290145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0592
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...
VALID 290013Z - 290145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE
HAIL, WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK INTO THIS EVENING (00-02Z).
DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ARE TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE
EVOLVING EAST OF A DRYLINE BULGE, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
INTO THE 80S AMID UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEWPOINTS -- BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (PER VWP
DATA), CHARACTERIZED BY A LONG/GENERALLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH, SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SHOULD EXPAND, FAVORING AN INCREASING TORNADO
RISK -- ESPECIALLY AS STORMS TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE RED
RIVER THROUGH 02Z. AROUND OF 300-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT A STRONG TORNADO WITH ANY ESTABLISHED
RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT EVOLVE.
..WEINMAN.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 32470016 32680034 33790018 34189991 34299959 34229923
34049892 33689885 33009895 32579931 32429964 32470016
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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