450
ACUS11 KWNS 290156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290155
OKZ000-TXZ000-290300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0855 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 182...
VALID 290155Z - 290300Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 182 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LIKELY PEAKING OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...AFTER SEVERAL STORM MERGERS INTO A CLUSTER OF
SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHWEST OK -- TO INCLUDE A LEFT-MOVER THAT
PRODUCED 3-INCH HAIL, THE LATEST RADAR DATA HAS SHOWN SIGNS THAT
RIGHT-MOVERS ARE ATTEMPTING TO BECOME DOMINANT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED ENLARGEMENT OF
CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPH SAMPLED BY THE FDR VWP (AROUND 270 M2/S2
0-500M SRH). WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK,
GIVEN THE CONTINUED MESSY MODE, RECENT TRENDS AND ENVIRONMENTAL DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE RIGHT MOVERS COULD MATURE AND POSE AN INCREASED
TORNADO RISK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..WEINMAN.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 34749962 35029950 35199863 35159822 34719805 34539820
34429887 34429947 34749962
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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