842
ACUS11 KWNS 290434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290433
TXZ000-NMZ000-290530-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 290433Z - 290530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS. THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING ACROSS WEST
TX LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST VWP DATA FROM MAF SUPPORTS THIS WITH
50KT 1KM FLOW AND STRONG 0-3KM SRH. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE HAS SURGED BACK INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND
A SHARP MOISTURE DEMARCATION APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
RECENT UPTICK IN CONVECTION FROM NEAR INK TO LYNN COUNTY. HAIL IS
NOTED ALONG THIS LINE OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
SPREAD/DEVELOP NORTHEAST AS LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED INTO
THIS REGION. GIVEN THE LINEAR NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION, CURRENT
THINKING IS HAIL SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. EVEN SO, ISOLATED
HAIL COULD EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS.
..DARROW/GLEASON.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32430316 34450069 33889975 32740133 31860310 32430316
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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