785
ACUS11 KWNS 290551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290550
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-290745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0597
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 290550Z - 290745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG OR
POSSIBLY JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH FROM KANSAS
INTO OKLAHOMA AND SURROUNDING STATES. LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND
SPORADIC LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE OK PANHANDLE
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND INTO NORTHWEST MO, WITH ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALREADY FORMING IN THE HUT TO P28 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACES WITH MLCAPE
TO 2000 J/KG.
WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT, AND EVEN
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL VEER WITH TIME. AS SUCH, ANY INITIAL CELLULAR
ACTIVITY (PRODUCING HAIL) MAY TEND TO MERGE INTO AN MCS. SUCH AN MCS
WOULD MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE MEAN WIND, POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND VICINITY.
..JEWELL/MOSIER.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37129404 36699426 36459465 35939569 35749742 35509882
35479990 35620023 36020035 36380019 36859971 37139910
37519811 37829734 37979590 37899471 37589409 37129404
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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