517
ACUS11 KWNS 291602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291601
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-291730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST IN AND MUCH OF OH INTO WESTERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291601Z - 291730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND ACROSS MUCH OF OHIO/WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS/WEAK MCV OVER CENTRAL IN HAS
SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES OF SO, AND A RECENT WIND
GUST TO 65 MPH WAS REPORTED NEAR MARTINSVILLE IN. RADAR TRENDS HAVE
SHOW INCREASING INTENSITY AT 5 AND 7 KM AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN OH, LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT MIDDAY ARE SUPPORTING
WEAK DESTABILIZATION. ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTENING AND STEEPENING
OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT EVENTUAL
INCREASE IN STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA.
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW, WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS, GENERALLY WILL
FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FROM CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN PA WHERE A PLUME OF
STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDES. SOME SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
1-2 KM WILL SUPPORT SMALL BUT CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WHILE A
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
COMPARED TO THE SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39248658 39638649 40098579 40348546 40968390 41398225
41398111 41328038 41157998 40797983 40248005 39938035
39618081 39318139 39198216 38968445 38928601 39098646
39248658
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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