426
ACUS11 KWNS 291752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291752
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-291915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IL/IN INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 291752Z - 291915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND
ISOLATED HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 19Z.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN A RELATIVE MINIMUM WITH REGARDS TO INTENSITY COMPARED
TO EARLIER TODAY, THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AMID MID/UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF
THE STORM CLUSTER IS POSSIBLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS AIRMASS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER IN SOUTHERN IN. A CLUSTER OF CUMULUS HAS BEEN DEEPENING ACROSS
THIS AREA, WHERE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY BE PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT.
STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODERATE INSTABILITY, AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 35 KT SHOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED
CELLS/CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. A NEW
WATCH DOWNSTREAM FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 187 WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 37588623 37098837 37028880 37128923 37498953 37888971
38328933 38808804 39178648 39228568 39008534 38618515
38168515 37848550 37588623
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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