040
ACUS11 KWNS 291841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291841
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-292045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN PA/NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 291841Z - 292045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD ACCOMPANYING THIS ACTIVITY. A WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS ALLOWED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE BY 2-6 DEGREES F OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH VALUES NOW IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S F. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG HEATING INTO THE 80S HAS RESULTED IN
STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODEST INSTABILITY ALSO IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, AND A LARGE AREA OF CUMULUS IS EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN NY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEAST
SAGGING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR INTO WESTERN
PA. ADDITIONALLY, AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL OHIO IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THIS CLUSTER
IS TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST AROUND 50-60 KT AS SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE
OH/PA BORDER BY 21Z.
UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING GUSTS. MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL IF ANY MORE DISCRETE CELLS CAN
DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39957972 40048059 41688036 42048003 43187839 43477743
43597659 43597614 43457579 43147542 42757569 41277732
39957972
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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