551
ACUS03 KWNS 291928
SWODY3
SPC AC 291927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWARD TO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX FORECAST TO BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OZARKS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
SECOND TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
AS THIS OCCURS, WEAK LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY PROGGED TO RESIDE OVER
THE MISSOURI VICINITY WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD TO TEXAS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING OVER -- AND JUST WEST OF --
PORTIONS OF THE MRGL RISK AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, AND THIS
INITIAL CONVECTION COMPLICATES THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO AREAS
WHERE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO FUEL NEW/VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN GENERAL HOWEVER, A MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON INCREASE IN STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT, AND
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF REMNANT OUTFLOW FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA. MODEST SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA, AND WESTWARD INTO TEXAS WHERE A
FEW LATER-AFTERNOON STORMS MAY DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
RISK TO LOCALLY STRONGER STORMS. HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
RISKS.
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE MIDWEST, STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED, BUT
ALSO LIKELY WEAKER INSTABILITY. WHILE LATER INCLUSION OF A SLGT
RISK AREA MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PORTION OF THIS AREA, AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THAT. GENERALLY, PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY POSE RISK FOR SEVERE-CALIBER
WIND/HAIL LOCALLY. RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS STORMS NOCTURNALLY WEAKEN.
..GOSS.. 04/29/2025
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