066
ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292035
ARZ000-OKZ000-292230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292035Z - 292230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...STORMS IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED AND
SUB-SEVERE SO FAR. THE OBSERVED 18Z NORMAN SOUNDING SHOWED MODESTLY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION/RECOVERY IN
EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BACK INTO THE
LOW 70S. THERE IS AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL THAT STORMS NEAREST TO THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BECOME NEAR TO SURFACE BASED. A LOCALLY
GREATER SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THAT SCENARIO. OVERALL,
HOWEVER, STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.
..WENDT/HART.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34979457 34769485 34579564 34649648 34839687 35269723
36169746 36339747 36479716 36539624 36409425 35859399
35349438 34979457
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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