363
ACUS11 KWNS 292256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292255
OKZ000-TXZ000-300030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0555 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190...
VALID 292255Z - 300030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...PARTS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190 WILL LIKELY BE
UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE HOUR.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS IS TRACKING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TX -- WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO 5
INCHES IN DIAMETER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TRACKING/DEVELOPING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
CONTINUING TO POSE A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AMID MOIST/EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW (UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS), LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
EXPAND WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOCKWISE CURVATURE (EFFECTIVE SRH UPWARDS
OF 300 M2/S2). WHILE FRONT-PARALLEL FLOW CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
MODE EVOLUTION AND INGESTION OF SURFACE-BASED INFLOW, THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING TORNADO RISK. THEREFORE,
PARTS OF WW190 WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO WATCH WITHIN THE
HOUR.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 04/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33550068 34040021 34739903 35049794 35029721 34869686
34409677 34009694 33739738 33289846 32939963 32910028
33050076 33550068
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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