298
ACUS11 KWNS 300143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300142
TXZ000-300345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0612
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190...
VALID 300142Z - 300345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 190
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE RISK HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ACROSS
THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS IN WW190. HOWEVER, SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (03-06Z TIME FRAME).
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS, THE SEVERE RISK HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED --
WITH A COUPLE SMALL/DISCRETE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL
IN THE NEAR-TERM. AS A RESULT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WW190 WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THIS REGION AT 02Z. HOWEVER, AS A 40-50
KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND IMPINGES ON A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME. STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES
(SAMPLED BY THE MAF 00Z SOUNDING) AND 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS (SOME POTENTIALLY ELEVATED)
CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE AND
ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31960237 32660215 33620168 34070123 34210072 34090015
33710000 32620010 31440049 31120076 31040121 31130192
31370229 31960237
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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