666
ACUS11 KWNS 300209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300209
OKZ000-TXZ000-300345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ALONG THE RED RIVER
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 194...
VALID 300209Z - 300345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 194 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE RISK OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 194.
DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAS EVOLVED
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WHICH
IS TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 40-50 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
TRACKING ALONG AN EAST/WEST-ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE, FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE MAINTENANCE
OF THIS MCS WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE GUST FRONT (SAMPLED BY VWP) AND
ENHANCED SRH ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MESOVORTICIES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES. ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS,
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES AS WELL.
..WEINMAN.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33879848 34579840 34819811 34899760 34859683 34639664
34089658 33259696 33009742 32879815 32869899 32989923
33279919 33879848
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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