507
ACUS11 KWNS 300443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300442
TXZ000-OKZ000-300645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195...
VALID 300442Z - 300645Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 195
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ROBUST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO REGENERATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
THAT IS EJECTING INTO THIS REGION. LLJ IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST/WEST TX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, AND VWP DATA SUPPORTS THIS
WITH 40-50KT 1KM SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
THE NEAR-STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED FROM SOUTH OF ADM-NORTH
OF ABI-MAF. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY THROUGH
SUNRISE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVE EFFICIENT IN
GENERATING ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. HAIL SHOULD
BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS MODEST MUCAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATES
EXIST WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT. LATEST THINKING IS MULTIPLE ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OK.
..DARROW.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33010305 33830109 34609906 34379691 33509693 32050095
32090272 33010305
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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