027
ACUS11 KWNS 300540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300539
OKZ000-TXZ000-300715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 195...
VALID 300539Z - 300715Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 195 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL OR
LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION, AND A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS THE TORNADO WATCH EXPIRES
AT 0600Z.
DISCUSSION...A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS OK, WITH
REAR-INFLOW/CONFLUENCE BANDS DEVELOPING WESTWARD ALONG I-40.
MEANWHILE, SPORADIC SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL CORES PERSIST OVER
NORTHWEST TX AND ALONG THE RED RIVER, NEAR THE DEEPER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.
GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850 MB WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS, ADDITIONAL SEVERE CELLS MAY REDEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE
TONIGHT. AS SUCH, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS AREA
INSIDE WW 0195. WITH TIME, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MERGE INTO
YET ANOTHER MCS.
..JEWELL.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...
LAT...LON 34399976 34499966 34579940 34609711 34589514 34409454
33839467 33769500 33489701 33509866 33479967 33990006
34399976
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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