427
ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN US. SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS.
..DISCUSSION
THE PATTERN ON D3/FRIDAY WILL INCLUDE A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD, AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS MAY POSE A CONTINUED RISK OF
DAMAGING WIND FROM LATE D2/THURSDAY INTO D3/FRIDAY AS THE AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THIS IS PROGGED TO BE UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
MAINTENANCE SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY NEAR
THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE. THE MODE HERE WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A TRANSITION INTO A
MORE MIXED MODE OF SUPERCELLS AND MULTI CELL CLUSTERS. NONETHELESS,
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST COAST. IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IF THERE IS A CORRIDOR OF MORE FAVORABLE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. A BROAD PLUME OF INSTABILITY
WILL EXTEND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION, BUT
FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. AS SUCH, NO AREAS WERE INCLUDED WITH
THIS OUTLOOK BUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
..THORNTON/BENTLEY.. 04/30/2025
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