658
ACUS11 KWNS 301622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301621
ARZ000-OKZ000-301745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK INTO NORTHWEST AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...
VALID 301621Z - 301745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SPORADIC STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE OR EXTENSION OF WW
197.
DISCUSSION...A MATURE MCS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS EASTERN
OK AND NORTH TX LATE THIS MORNING. INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN
THE BROADER LINE OF STORMS MAY LIFT MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
FILTERED HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN AR WHERE THINNER CLOUD
COVER IS NOTED. GENERALLY LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPORTING MODEST
INSTABILITY, AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED
GIVEN SOMEWHAT POOR LAPSE RATES WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. NEVERTHELESS,
ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING GUSTS, THOUGH A BRIEF SPIN-UP ALSO
COULD OCCUR WITH ANY LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX THAT DEVELOPS. TORNADO
WATCH 197 MAY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD, OR A NEW WATCH COULD BE ISSUED
DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35589576 36169533 36209525 36479462 36489365 36489282
36399254 35829245 35309256 35219275 35199302 35219430
35289530 35309566 35399576 35589576
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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