415
ACUS11 KWNS 301717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301717
LAZ000-TXZ000-301915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0619
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX INTO NORTHWEST
LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 301717Z - 301915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...DEEPENING CUMULUS IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSING LINE/MCS
ACROSS NORTH TX. SCATTERED CLOUDINESS HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER
HEATING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S F AT MIDDAY. A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S F RESIDES
BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN MLCAPE
INCREASING TO AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. SUPERCELL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES GREATER THAN 35 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE
OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES (A COUPLE OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG), DAMAGING GUSTS, AND ISOLATED HAIL. SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE OOZING LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH TIME, LINEAR CONVECTION MAY ALSO INTENSIFY AND SURGE
EAST. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO FOR PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31769817 32139747 32329582 33009362 32869316 32529311
32089339 31609404 30949523 30519611 30599725 30709781
30919825 31239836 31769817
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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