234
ACUS11 KWNS 301932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301932
TXZ000-NMZ000-302030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301932Z - 302030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN NM. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
VICINITY INTO EARLY EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING
A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F), THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE SUPPORTING WEAK INSTABILITY UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE.
INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE RESULTING IN ELONGATED/STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR, BUT AT LEAST TRANSIENT ORGANIZED, STRONG CELLS ARE
EXPECTED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS. WHILE A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED, TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING HAIL RISK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35070201 35020106 34730031 34230004 33880006 33280015
32920047 32800135 32780165 32880259 33090320 33670355
34350338 34710317 35070201
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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