092
ACUS11 KWNS 301954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301953
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-302200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 197...
VALID 301953Z - 302200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 197 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN
POSSIBLE. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...THE LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AR WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST AT AROUND 35 KT THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DOWNSTREAM,
FILTERED HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
80S AMID LOW/MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
MODEST, BUT THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS FOSTERING MODEST INSTABILITY
AMID A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN STRONGER HEATING AHEAD
OF THE LINE, LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLE, AND
THIS MAY FOSTER A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS INTO EARLY
EVENING. A NEW WATCH DOWNSTREAM FROM TORNADO WATCH 197 WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
..LEITMAN.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35659348 35719254 35479186 35119155 34569157 33499197
33099222 33039257 33019310 33109398 33459431 34149466
35329435 35659348
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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