306
ACUS11 KWNS 302007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302007
WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-302200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 302007Z - 302200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A WATCH IS NOT LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS (MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS) IS IN
PLACE IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A
BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW, EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS A MODEST 25-30
KTS. AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(SAMPLED BY THIS MORNINGS SOUNDINGS) ARE MODEST. SMALL TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED, MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
..WENDT/HART.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...
LAT...LON 37518517 38178451 38358349 38128257 37748218 37448242
36718337 36558413 36898486 37518517
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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