222
ACUS11 KWNS 302329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302328
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-010100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO FAR WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 199...
VALID 302328Z - 010100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 199 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...AN EASTWARD-MOVING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK OF
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX TORNADO OR TWO
INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED MCS IS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AR AT AROUND 30 KT. GIVEN AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTED OBLIQUE TO THE GUST FRONT, WARM/MOIST INFLOW, AND A
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET, THIS MCS SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS
CURRENT INTENSITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF AR
AND PERHAPS INTO FAR WESTERN TN AND NORTHWESTERN MS. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS (ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS), THOUGH AN EMBEDDED MESOVORTEX TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT (AIDED BY AROUND 200 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH) -- ESPECIALLY IN
THE NEAR-TERM. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DOWNSTREAM WATCH.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 04/30/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33609228 34919208 35719195 35999162 36119111 36109035
35918980 35238970 33619024 33209085 33259182 33609228
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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