471
ACUS11 KWNS 010019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010019
TXZ000-010145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 198...
VALID 010019Z - 010145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 198 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...RISK OF SEVERE HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS --
WITHIN WW198.
DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF
AN OUTFLOW-REINFORCED COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST TX -- WHERE STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND 50 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FAVORING A SEVERE HAIL RISK. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THE FRONT MAY MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR IF
STORMS WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED. NEVERTHELESS, A SEVERE HAIL RISK
SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS, AND EITHER AN EXTENSION OF
THE CURRENT WATCH OR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH (SEVERE THUNDERSTORM) WOULD
BE WARRANTED.
..WEINMAN/SMITH.. 05/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31209766 31499746 31859667 32179524 32069486 31709473
31339512 30719655 30659715 30849759 31209766
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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