095
ACUS03 KWNS 010717
SWODY3
SPC AC 010716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTH
TEXAS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL ALSO
EXTEND WESTWARD NEAR THE GULF COAST, AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT.
..EAST COAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SOME DESTABILIZATION OCCURS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL BE PRESENT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. SOME
HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LEAD TO WEAK TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WEAK WITH ONLY MARGINALLY STRONG SHEAR. GIVEN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, A FEW MULTICELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..FAR SOUTH TEXAS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
ALONG A FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 45 TO 50
KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THEREFORE, ORGANIZED STORMS, INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO/THE GULF.
..BENTLEY.. 05/01/2025
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