722
ACUS48 KWNS 010856
SWOD48
SPC AC 010855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
..DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT MOST MOISTURE INTO THE
ATLANTIC/GULF OF AMERICA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS TEXAS
WHERE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS ON DAY 4/SUN AND DAY 5/MON. HOWEVER,
SPECIFIC DURING THIS PERIOD, AND PARTICULARLY BEYOND, ARE QUITE
NEBULOUS. THE ECMWF CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
VICINITY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS WAITS TO CUT OFF THE
UPPER-LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON MONDAY/TUESDAY.
FARTHER WEST THERE IS MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A
CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST VICINITY. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
TIMING/LOCATION DIFFERENCES FOR THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST.
THE GFS SOLUTION RESULTS IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WHICH
CLEARS OUT MOST OF THE GREATER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH LEAVES A
RESERVOIR OF RICH THETA-E WHICH CAN BE ADVECTED ACROSS TEXAS AND
VICINITY DURING THE EARLY-MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE,
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME, BUT
ONCE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE CLEAR, PROBABILITIES MAY
BE NECESSARY.
..BENTLEY.. 05/01/2025
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