661
ACUS11 KWNS 011844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011843
WVZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-012015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OH...NORTHEAST
KY...WESTERN/NORTHERN WV...WESTERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203...
VALID 011843Z - 012015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 203
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG GUSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN CELLS/CLUSTERS HAVE INCREASED IN LATITUDINAL
EXTENT ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST CONFLUENCE AXIS
FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE THROUGH CENTRAL KY. MEASURED GUSTS OF 35-45
KTS HAVE SPORADICALLY BEEN MEASURED, MAINLY ACROSS THE OH PORTION OF
THE BAND. THIS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY STILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREA VWP DATA
STILL INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF SOUTHWESTERLY SPEED SHEAR IS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM, YIELDING PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE
HODOGRAPH ABOVE THAT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL
MAY BE LIMITED, AND RECENT WOFS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.
MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALSO FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN VICINITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO
EXPAND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A PRONOUNCED DECREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND NORTH/EAST FROM THERE.
..GRAMS.. 05/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 41308239 41608208 42058121 42118070 42188009 41237937
40497916 39777898 39387918 39037967 38888114 38748169
37958292 37588399 37598446 37988457 38808377 39818292
41308239
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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