753
ACUS11 KWNS 011903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011903
TXZ000-012100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 011903Z - 012100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS
OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. TIMING AND WHERE THE
GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS. CUMULUS TOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND ALONG A MOISTURE
GRADIENT/PSEUDO DRYLINE WITHIN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S F. MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE WEAK,
BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MINIMAL MLCIN SHOULD ALLOW A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. THE MOST ORGANIZED STORMS
ARE MORE LIKELY IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
GREATER. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AS THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS LESS CONVERGENT. STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY-LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
GUSTS. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THESE REGIONS. THE
UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POSSIBLE WATCHES.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..WENDT/HART.. 05/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30049901 29459947 29120022 29290072 29550091 29840078
30010058 31029904 31389834 31499815 31549796 31319746
31069672 30719638 30449662 30479704 30689754 30639829
30049901
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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