892
ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
..MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST
SOMEWHAT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CONUS BY
SATURDAY, WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS,
DOWNSTREAM FROM A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS, AND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR
SOUTHERN CA. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW, WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH TX. A BROAD WARM SECTOR WITH
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS EXPECTED FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION
THROUGH FRIDAY/D2 CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE QUALITY OF BUOYANCY
IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO AL BY SATURDAY. ASSUMING
A FEW POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING COINCIDENT WITH THE BAND OF
STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW EAST-THROUGH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW,
THERE COULD BE A FEW CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS, BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND STORM COVERAGE
IS UNCERTAIN WELL EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE PROBABLE FROM THE PIEDMONT AND BLUE
RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA/SOUTHEASTERN NY. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN EVENTUAL UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK FOR A
PORTION OF THE MRGL AREA, PENDING MORE CLARITY REGARDING THE
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION PRIOR TO D3.
..DEEP SOUTH TX
A SURFACE COLD FRONT, LIKELY MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH TX EARLY SATURDAY.
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
EFFECTIVE FRONT, WHICH LIKEWISE CASTS DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN
THE MRGL IN THIS UPDATE, BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED IN SUBSEQUENT
UPDATES.
..THOMPSON.. 05/01/2025
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