487
ACUS11 KWNS 012023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012022
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-012145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN MD/EASTERN WV PANHANDLES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012022Z - 012145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SINGLE, SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN GREATER COVERAGE/LONGEVITY FOR A
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL CENTERED ON ALLEGANY COUNTY, MD HAS HAD THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OBSERVATIONAL STRUCTURE PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS,
RELATIVE TO OTHER SEVERE STORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE ANCHORED NEAR A SLOW-MOVING
WARM FRONT, LIKELY INGESTING A MESOSCALE RIBBON OF MID 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WV/VA/MD BORDER AREA. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY CONFINED REGION OF THIS ENHANCEMENT, WITH A SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER AIR MASS BOTH TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH, THE LONGEVITY OF A
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE IS QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER, IT IS
PLAUSIBLE THAT A LOCALIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40187889 40417839 40357799 40057745 39807752 39557809
39517888 39707911 40187889
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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