906
ACUS11 KWNS 012220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012219
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-020015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012219Z - 020015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SPORADIC LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM THE ARKLAMISS REGION TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A DIFFUSE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL ZONE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST HOUR VIA CLOUD-TOP COOLING AND AN
INCREASING IN VERTICALLY INTEGRATED ICE. TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE LOW 80S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH MID/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS ARE SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS A BROAD SWATH
OF THE REGION, AND 30-35 KNOT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORT ADEQUATE
SHEAR FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS
(GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) AND STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE
PROMOTING RAPID COLD POOL EXPANSION THAT IS LIMITING STORM LONGEVITY
TO SOME DEGREE AND FAVORING MULTICELLULAR MODES. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL (1-1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER) AND
DAMAGING GUSTS - ESPECIALLY IF A MORE CONSOLIDATED, COLD-POOL DRIVEN
CLUSTER CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE
GIVEN REGIONALLY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 05/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34868442 34358457 33978474 33748494 33398536 33188600
32678895 32648909 32539083 32579121 32699158 32979182
33209184 33469178 33689124 33879055 34838705 35078635
35228561 35318519 35298486 35148457 34868442
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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