231
ACUS11 KWNS 012319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012319
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0639
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...2NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 012319Z - 020115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAVE BEEN MORE INTENSE AND PERSISTENT THAN
INITIALLY ANTICIPATED BASED ON AN ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS. OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS, THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED WITHIN A SUBTLE
THETA-E/BUOYANCY RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY WITH A 1.75 INCH HAIL REPORT NOTED OVER THE PAST HOUR.
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS FAIRLY MARGINAL BASED ON REGIONAL VWP OBSERVATIONS (20-25
KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
AUGMENTED BUOYANCY HAVE BEEN ADEQUATE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WEAK/TRANSIENT MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES IN THE STRONGER CELLS. STORMS
MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AS THEY TRAVERSE THE BUOYANCY RIDGE AND PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING AFTER 01 UTC. THE STRONGER CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
1-1.75 INCH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS, THOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO
PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.
..MOORE/SMITH.. 05/01/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
LAT...LON 36839132 37329103 37969031 38688890 38878817 38758773
38498738 38218723 37978721 37618737 37418756 36088983
35699050 35659087 35679114 35829148 36049158 36289161
36839132
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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