267
ACUS11 KWNS 020214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020214
OKZ000-TXZ000-020345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 020214Z - 020345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH
OF OKLAHOMA. HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION...LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM WESTERN KS INTO THE
WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING
TOWARD WESTERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS SHARPENED A BIT DOWNSTREAM, EXTENDING FROM NEAR
TUL-SOUTHERN MCCLAIN COUNTY-NEAR LAWTON. AS 1KM FLOW INCREASES INTO
THIS FRONTAL CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING IT APPEARS THIS BOUNDARY
MAY ENCOURAGE ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MOST HIGH-RES MODELS
FAVOR SOME VERSION OF THIS SCENARIO, AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROVE
BENEFICIAL IN POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH APPEARS
WARRANTED.
..DARROW/SMITH.. 05/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36289967 35999531 33969511 34259990 36289967
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page