110
ACUS11 KWNS 021439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021439
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-021645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021439Z - 021645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN INCREASING SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTHERN LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD.
DISCUSSION...AN MCV OVER CENTRAL AR WILL LIKELY DRIVE PRIMARY
SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ARCS FROM THIS MCV ACROSS SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTHWEST LA,
WHERE INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. WITH MODERATE
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OF THE RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
OUTFLOW, MODERATELY LARGE BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED. PRIMARY MID-LEVEL
FLOW ENHANCEMENT ATTENDANT TO THE MCV MAY REMAIN CONFINED NORTH OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, IT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CLUSTERING/POTENTIAL BOWING STRUCTURES ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY PLUME. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD IN THIS SETUP.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
LAT...LON 34949219 35319151 35509026 35378940 35108852 34398827
33608829 33148845 32618913 32259017 32179156 32199262
32369355 33309268 34949219
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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