636
ACUS11 KWNS 021630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021629
KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-021800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0648
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209...
VALID 021629Z - 021800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 209
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE WIND
AND BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL IS APPARENT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.
DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG WITH AN EMERGING LINEAR
SEGMENT ARE ONGOING FROM THE MID-SOUTH ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. PRIMARY
LARGE HAIL THREAT IS WITH THE LEADING CONVECTION AND DEVELOPING
CELLS TO ITS SOUTH. PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
IN TWO REGIMES. IN THE NEAR-TERM, ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST TN WHERE A NORTH/SOUTH-ORIENTED LINE SEGMENT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE TRAILING OUTFLOW FROM THE LEADING CONVECTION. THIS MAY
ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SRH ALONG THE OUTFLOW. DOWNSTREAM IN NORTHERN AL THROUGH MIDDLE TN
AND SOUTHERN KY, DAMAGING WIND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AS GREATER AMALGAMATION OF CONVECTION OCCURS.
..GRAMS.. 05/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 36518766 37298752 37528666 37508604 37218579 36098586
34688620 33928709 33808873 33828988 33879028 34569040
35229017 35318900 35558825 36078790 36518766
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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