551
ACUS11 KWNS 021823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021823
TXZ000-022030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 021823Z - 022030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (SOME 2+ INCH IN DIAMETER) AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE LIKELY, AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHWARD AS A SMALL SCALE FRONT/BOUNDARY ADVANCES FROM THE STOCKTON
PLATEAU. AHEAD OF BOTH BOUNDARIES, THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE, WITH 3000 J/KG MLCAPE ALREADY IN PLACE GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD BY 8-8.5 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (PER 18Z MESOANALYSIS). 60-80 KTS OF 300 MB
WESTERLY FLOW ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL JET. AS SUCH, 40-50 KTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN PLACE, IN TANDEM WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY, TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS. A FEW
INSTANCES OF 2+ INCH DIAMETER HAIL MAY OCCUR, ALONG WITH A TORNADO.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 05/02/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29590204 30380193 30980140 31220033 31209921 30609908
29739935 29239974 29020026 29070067 29370105 29590145
29620163 29590204
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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