371
ACUS03 KWNS 021923
SWODY3
SPC AC 021922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2025
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
..COASTAL GA TO SOUTHERN PA
A MID/UPPER CYCLONE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY
VICINITY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER
FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC VICINITY. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL FROM ROUGHLY NORTHERN VA INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
FL PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL BE
IN PLACE AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA. MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION MAY LIMIT STRONGER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION,
BUT CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SUPPORT CORRIDORS OF MLCAPE AROUND 500-750 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN MODEST, AROUND 25 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES, BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. STRONGER CELLS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL.
..FL
WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEBULOUS ACROSS THE REGION, LOW
TO MID-60S F DEWPOINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO
MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FL EAST COAST.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITHIN THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CELLULAR/MULTICELL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST (AROUND 25 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR), VERTICALLY
VEERING PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST LOCALLY
STRONG GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO COULD OCCUR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY.
..EASTERN NM
AN UPPER CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. A BELT OF ENHANCED MID/UPPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEAR THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS
FORECAST. WHILE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER (DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S F), COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -15 C AT
500 MB) WILL RESULT IN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTING WEAK
INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM AND SPREAD INTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WITH TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
..LEITMAN.. 05/02/2025
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