156
ACUS11 KWNS 030106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030105
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-ALZ000-030230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0805 PM CDT FRI MAY 02 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN ALABAMA...NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND
ADJANCENT PARTS OF THE FAR WESTERN CAROLINAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216...
VALID 030105Z - 030230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 216
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS A
WEAKENING SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT
A MORE ROBUST/WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS
NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHING EAST ACROSS EASTERN AL AND
NORTHERN GA HAS BEGUN TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING VIA FALLING ECHO TOPS AND WARMING
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES IN LATEST GOES IR IMAGERY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING
FROM THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S INTO THE LOW 70S/UPPER 60S OVER THE
PAST 1-2 HOURS. MODIFYING THE OBSERVED 00Z FFC SOUNDING FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS
RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT THIS POINT IN THE NOCTURNAL COOLING CYCLE, AND
7-7.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES REMAIN OVER THE REGION. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GA
AND THE FAR WESTERN CAROLINAS (WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S) TO ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER, BUT TRANSIENT, UPDRAFT PULSES
WITHIN THE LINE. THE COLLAPSE OF THESE PULSES MAY PROMOTE DAMAGING
WINDS AT THE SURFACE, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE
WITH TIME AND EASTERN EXTENT AS LOW-LEVEL STABILITY INCREASES IN A
MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
..MOORE.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...
LAT...LON 33418558 33908509 34398467 34758438 35098396 35178374
35188347 35128304 34998283 34788278 34568284 34008316
33578356 33308400 33208442 33088508 33098545 33188564
33308569 33418558
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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