468
ACUS03 KWNS 030739
SWODY3
SPC AC 030738
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST.
..SYNOPSIS
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN STILL IN PLACE, MOVEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOWS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST WILL BE SLOW. THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS EASTWARD
THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
..SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL TEXAS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE ROUGHLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. MODELS DIFFER
ON THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS MOISTURE, BUT GENERALLY AGREE
THAT LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PARTS
OF THE TRANS-PECOS/BIG BEND. AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WITHIN THE DAVIS SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS ON THE SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR
GIVEN 50-55 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE
TO VERY-LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREATS. DURING THE EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS
OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS. THIS PATTERN WOULD
SUPPORT MCS DEVELOPMENT AND A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS,
BUT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT UNCERTAIN, AN
INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE WITHHELD AT THIS POINT.
ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PSEUDO WARM
FRONT/MOISTURE GRADIENT IN CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DURING THE EVENING
OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/MCSS
FARTHER WEST.
..FLORIDA
MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL (-10 TO -12 C AT 500
MB) AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING SHOULD PROMOTE 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000
J/KG MLCAPE. AS STORMS DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY, A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
..MID-ATLANTIC
EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER MAKE AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION UNCERTAIN IN THIS REGION. WINDS FIELDS WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS, HOWEVER. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN GREATER
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PARTS OF THE BLUE RIDGE/PIEDMONT REGION, A
MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.
..WENDT.. 05/03/2025
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