507
ACUS48 KWNS 030858
SWOD48
SPC AC 030856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/TUESDAY
THE UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MAKE MORE PROGRESS
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME, HOWEVER. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IN TURN WILL BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. AT LEAST SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT RICHER
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS. A WARM FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER. A COMPOSITE FRONT/DRYLINE IS ALSO EXPECTED IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH EARLY PERIOD PRECIPITATION AND
HAS THE FARTHEST SOUTH CLUSTER/MCS COMPARATIVELY AS WELL. GIVEN THE
FORCING FROM AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER 850 MB FLOW
INTO THE WARM FRONT, THIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE PLAUSIBLE AT
THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE
VALLEY. THAT SAID, WIND FIELDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS.
SHOULD MORE LIMITED PRECIPITATION OCCUR, SEVERE STORMS COULD BE MORE
FOCUSED ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE. CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF
KEY FEATURES REMAINS TOO LOW FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..D5/WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF AMPLITUDE IS ALSO EXPECTED BY THIS TIME. A BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER COASTAL TEXAS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL
AND SURFACE PATTERN, IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND GREATER BUOYANCY
WILL REACH. THIS UNCERTAINTY COUPLED WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT NOT
BEING FAVORABLY TIMED DIURNALLY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN HIGHLIGHTING
ANY CORRIDORS OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..D6/THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ANOTHER WEAK CUTOFF
LOW IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE WEST, AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD AND MOVE OVER THE PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN DOES NOT SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS, THOUGH MESOSCALE/CONDITIONAL AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
EVIDENT.
..WENDT.. 05/03/2025
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