026
ACUS11 KWNS 031559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031558
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-031800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHWEST VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031558Z - 031800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND SMALL TO MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE
DEGREE OF SEVERE-STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS WITHIN MORE MUTED
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WITH GREATER INSOLATION/WARMTH EASTWARD IN
THE PIEDMONT TO COASTAL PLAIN. WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, IT
MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR CELLS TO INTENSIFY TO MARGINAL SEVERE
LEVELS. AMID A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
PROFILE, STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD TOWARDS STEEPER LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OVER THE PIEDMONT. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
FROM LOCALIZED STRONG GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH PRODUCING ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 37398016 37497956 37337912 36377943 34658023 33938090
33798147 34438184 35208198 36258137 37048061 37398016
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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