429
ACUS11 KWNS 031735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031734
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-032000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0666
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031734Z - 032000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT LEAST ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG/DAMAGING
GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER, SUSTAINED
STORMS.
DISCUSSION...MRMS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION
ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER, WITH 40 DBZ ECHOES REACHING 30 KFT AMID
INCREASING LIGHTNING TRENDS. THESE STORMS ARE ATTEMPTING TO
STRENGTHEN AMID A MODESTLY SHEARED AIRMASS (I.E. 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR PER 17Z MESOANALYSIS AND REGIONAL VADS). HOWEVER,
BUOYANCY STILL REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F, BENEATH 6 C/KM TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES, CONTRIBUTING TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE. DIURNAL HEATING MAY
FURTHER BOOST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUPPORTING BETTER
BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MIXED STORM MODES SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BECOME SINCE AMPLE CLOUD COVER
MAY CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING TO SOME DEGREE. IF GREATER
BUOYANCY IS REALIZED THAN FORECAST, THEN REGIONALLY GREATER SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY MATERIALIZE, WHICH COULD NECESSITATE A WW ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 31588904 32108926 32918868 34438751 35028710 35188672
34928605 33628598 32378640 31848706 31638802 31588904
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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