624
ACUS11 KWNS 031851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031850
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-032045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031850Z - 032045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE DEGREE OF SEVERE-STORM COVERAGE TO
WARRANT A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...BETWEEN A SEVERE-STORM THREAT ONGOING OVER THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF STRONG STORMS FROM THE SC
MIDLANDS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST VA, AN ISOLATED TO STRONG TO SEVERE
THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
NEBULOUS IN THE NEAR-TERM, BUT WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD. UNTIL THAT TIME, THE DEGREE OF
STORM COVERAGE BEYOND ISOLATED APPEARS QUESTIONABLE. BUT WHERE MORE
ROBUST INSOLATION HAS YIELDED LOW TO MID 80S SURFACE TEMPS,
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER AREA VWP DATA, MODERATE DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY SPEED SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TRANSIENT/WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE WILL OFFER A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING.
..GRAMS/GLEASON.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37587978 38087981 39337898 40247809 40557730 40787659
40567572 40007558 39577604 38507732 37437867 37587978
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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