948
ACUS03 KWNS 031921
SWODY3
SPC AC 031920
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA EAST
COAST AND FROM NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TO THE LAKE ERIE VICINITY.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY. ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS THIS OCCURS. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS, LEE TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS WITH
A SMALL SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER FAR WEST TX. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST,
WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN/TRANS-PECOS REGION. MORE MODEST MOISTURE
WILL EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHEAST CO TO
THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
STRONG HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE EXTENDING ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER
VICINITY INTO THE BIG BEND IS FORECAST. COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES, WITH CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS, BECOMING
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT ABOVE 2-3 KM SUGGEST LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG THE
WARM FRONT, AND AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT WITH TIME,
AND AN MCS COULD FORM AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL TX WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS.
MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE, BUT
STILL STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHEAST CO. HAIL AND GUST WINDS MAY OCCUR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
..NORTH CAROLINA TO LAKE ERIE
THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER KY EARLY MONDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ENHANCED MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION WHILE COOLING ALOFT SUPPORTS MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT MID
50S TO LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS AREAS OF MORNING SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS,
MODEST DESTABILIZATION TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS
POSSIBLE. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SOME
CELLULAR ORGANIZATION, AND ISOLATED HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..FLORIDA
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (SUPPORTED BY MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT). LOW TO MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER, VERTICALLY VEERING PROFILES BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ABOVE
500 MB WILL SUPPORT AROUND 25 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AND
ELONGATED/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 05/03/2025
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