687
ACUS11 KWNS 031938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031937
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-032100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0669
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OREGON
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 031937Z - 032100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE SPARSE NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT, A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY DEEPENING THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING RESULTING IN A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING UP TO 600 MB (PER 18Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS), AND 0-3
KM LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO 9-10 C/KM (19Z MESOANALYSIS). AS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER IMPINGES ON THE GREAT
BASIN, INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND SPEED SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
GREATER COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF HIGH-BASED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS.
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY TRANSPIRE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
GUSTS VIA DRY MICROBURSTS WITHIN THE STRONGER STORM CORES.
NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE
GUSTS, A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...VEF...BOI...LKN...REV...
LAT...LON 37041649 37341716 38121783 39091815 40671836 41901814
42631783 42831648 42581559 41661500 39921504 38421519
37561546 37211579 37041649
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
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