489
ACUS11 KWNS 032135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032134
GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-032330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ALABAMA INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032134Z - 032330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AL AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
EARLIER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS BEGUN TO ERODE OVER
THE PAST HOUR OR SO, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S WITH A CORRESPONDING REDUCTION IN INHIBITION AND
INCREASING MLCAPE (UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS
ESTIMATES). THE IMPROVING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, COUPLED WITH
35-40 KNOTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER REGIONAL VWPS, IS SUPPORTING AN
OVERALL UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY BASED ON GOES IR IMAGERY AND
MRMS ECHO TOPS. LINGERING CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DIURNAL
INSOLATION SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY AT
ITS ZENITH, SO THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. REGARDLESS,
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, THIS SQUALL LINE AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS,
OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WHERE LINE
SEGMENTS CAN BECOME MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED AND MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
..MOORE/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 33078405 32678453 32508502 32438560 32418624 32498684
32588719 32728729 32948705 33478660 34008607 34498572
34958504 35028475 35018434 34898408 34618387 34258376
33728381 33078405
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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