065
ACUS11 KWNS 032200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032159
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-040000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT SAT MAY 03 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 032159Z - 040000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LIMITS AND POSE A DAMAGING
WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUFFICIENTLY
INCREASES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AL INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN MS AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BROKEN
CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S,
WHICH BASED ON RECENT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SHOULD BE SUPPORTING
MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH VERY LIMITED
INHIBITION. REGIONAL VWPS ARE SAMPLING SOMEWHAT STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
WITH 0-6 KM BWD VALUES OF AROUND 40-45 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL (1.0 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
DIAMETER). HOWEVER, RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW WIDESPREAD NEW CELL
DEVELOPMENT WITH DESTRUCTIVE STORM INTERACTIONS ONGOING. THIS MAY
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WITH TIME,
UPSCALE GROWTH/STORM INTERACTIONS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE
CLUSTERING WITH AN ATTENDANT DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
AL AND PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED, AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
..MOORE/THOMPSON.. 05/03/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30228807 30418848 30798879 31198877 31648840 32038791
32218722 32328616 32248541 31778509 31468504 31088510
30708551 30478591 30388632 30308711 30218779 30208791
30228807
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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